SAN DIEGO, Jan. 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The California economy should continue to grow at a healthy pace in 2006, despite a likely slowdown in the housing market, Comerica Bank's chief economist, Dana Johnson, said in a report released today.
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"The coming home price adjustments will be relatively orderly -- denting, but not crushing the state economy," said Johnson, who was in San Diego today for his first of three presentations this month on the state of the California economy.
Johnson was a featured panelist at the 2006 Economic Trends breakfast at the San Diego Marriott Mission Valley presented by Comerica Bank and the San Diego Business Journal, attended by about 600 business leaders.
Johnson, a Ph.D former economist with the Federal Reserve Board, released his first in a series of quarterly economic briefs on California for Comerica Bank.
"I expect California to grow at a healthy pace in 2006, closely shadowing the national growth rate of about 3 1/4 percent," he said. Johnson said that as California's economy -- which generates more than 13 percent of the national output -- has grown, it more closely has come to resemble the national economy's growth rate, with one exception: real estate.
Over the past five years, housing prices in California have risen at a 16 percent compound annual rate, but Johnson said, "The recent trend can't last."
"House price gains in California are going to slow dramatically or reverse," he predicted in his report. He said affordable credit and a scarcity of good building sites will temper the slowdown.
Johnson also will be a featured speaker at two more Comerica-sponsored economic forecast events this month: the "Los Angeles Business Journal 2006 Economic Forecast," on Jan. 18 in Los Angeles; and the "The Economics of Business in 2006," co-sponsored by Comerica Bank and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, on Jan. 19 in San Mateo.
For more information about these events, to obtain a complete copy of Dana Johnson's California Brief, or to schedule an interview with Johnson, contact Barry Holtzclaw, Corporate Communications, 408-556-5111, or bholtzclaw@comerica.com.
About Comerica Bank
The Western Market of Comerica Bank includes 60 branch offices in key California markets, including San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego, Fresno, Sacramento and Santa Cruz /Monterey, as well as in Phoenix/Scottsdale, Ariz. The bank's Western market generated 35 percent of the income for Comerica Incorporated, on $14.2 billion in assets at September 30, 2005. Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a financial services company headquarter in Detroit, strategically aligned into the Business Bank, Small Business & Personal Financial Services, and Wealth & Institutional Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping businesses and people be successful. Comerica Inc. reported total assets of $54.3 billion at September 30, 2005. To receive e-mail alerts of breaking Comerica news, go to http://www.comerica.com/newsalerts.
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CONTACT: Barry Holtzclaw of Comerica Bank, +1-408-556-5111, or
+1-408-315-6554, bholtzclaw@comerica.com
Web site: http://www.comerica.com/newsalerts
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