Tempe, Ariz./February 2, 2004 -- David L. Littmann, senior vice president and chief economist for Detroit-based Comerica Bank, is the recipient of the 2003 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy. Sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, the award is one of the most prestigious and long-standing awards in the profession.
Alfred Nobel Memorial Prize winner Lawrence R. Klein, for whom the award is named, will present the award to Littmann at a luncheon on Tuesday, Feb. 10 at 11:30 a.m. at the University Club in New York City, 1 W. 54th St. At that time, Littmann will deliver his economic forecast for the year to come.
"For most of the past decade, the challenge for forecasters was figuring out just how fast the economy would grow," said Lee McPheters, associate dean of the W. P. Carey School of Business. "But since the award is based on four years of forecasts, David Littmann had to predict not only the downturn but also the pace of the recovery. His average error over several measures (gross domestic product, inflation, interest rates, and unemployment) was less than one-half of one percent. He was just about perfect on predicting the unemployment rate for four years, pretty remarkable because everybody expected the rate would skyrocket. It never did, and he pegged it right."
For 25 years Littmann has served on a panel of more than 50 economists which contributes monthly to Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a newsletter published by Aspen Publishers of New York. Founded by Robert Eggert and now edited by Randell E. Moore, the newsletter is the "gold standard" for monthly macroeconomic forecasts and has been utilized by policy makers and business leaders at the highest level for nearly three decades.
"Receiving the 2003 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy is the culmination of my forecasting career as a business economist. I feel deeply honored to receive this distinction from Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein who has contributed so richly to the understanding of global economics," Littmann said.
The Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy was created in 1981 to highlight the Blue Chip Economic Indicators panelist with the best accuracy record for the preceding year. This year the award was named for Dr. Klein, known as the father of economic forecasting. Sponsoring the award for the first time this year is the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, which has performed the analysis that determines the most accurate forecaster since 1993.
Littmann joined Comerica Bank in 1970 and is in charge of Comerica's economics department and research library. He authors Comerica's business brochure entitled Economic Briefs and has developed a host of business barometers for many regional economies, along with a Michigan tourism index. He conducts the monthly survey of local purchasing managers and is cited internationally for his releases on Comerica's Recession Watch and Auto-Affordability indexes.
Littmann has authored research articles on the causes of inflation, published in Business Economics, the professional journal of the National Association of Business Economists, and has been a featured columnist for three decades in The Detroiter, published by the Detroit Regional Chamber. The Wall Street Journal and Detroit News have published many of his editorials and his book reviews appear frequently in Ideas on Liberty, magazine of The Foundation for Economic Education.
He recently served as chairman of the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers Association in Washington, where he met regularly with governors of the Federal Reserve Board. He is past president of the Detroit Chapter of the National Association of Business Economists. Over his working career, Mr. Littmann has held positions in all levels of government, including the city of New York, the federal Office of Statistical Standards and the federal Budget Bureau.
W. P. Carey School of Business
The W. P. Carey School of Business provides quality undergraduate, masters and doctoral programs that draw upon a dynamic learning environment to prepare students at all levels for the future. Internationally recognized faculty enrich the curriculum with their latest research findings, and deliver this knowledge in a technology-rich environment. Ranked 21st in the nation by U.S. News & World Report, the undergraduate program features Business Honors comprised of some of the best students in the country. The MBA, ranked 17th in the nation among public programs, combines business fundamentals with marketplace issues and trends, giving graduates the knowledge and experience to excel in a global economy. W. P. Carey School of Business alumni are lifelong learners connected to the school and each other through an active alumni community and executive education opportunities.
