DALLAS, April 1, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index increased in January to a level of 118.0. January's reading is 20 points, or 21 percent, above the index cyclical low of 97.9. The index averaged 117.7 points for all of 2019, 0.9 points below the index average for 2018. December's index reading was revised to 117.7.
Data for all of Comerica Bank's State Economic Activity Indexes pre-dates the spread of the COVID-19 in the U.S. We expect to begin seeing the economic impact of the coronavirus and related mitigation programs in state-level data for March. Until the March data becomes available, we will focus our analysis on what the current data is telling us and what we believe is the most likely course for the data over the next few months. Comerica Bank's Michigan Economic Activity Index improved in January for the second straight month. Eight index components were positive for the month. That was last seen in February 2016. The positive components were nonfarm payrolls, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, house prices, industrial electricity demand, light vehicle production, total state trade and state sales tax revenue. Only the hotel occupancy sub-index declined in January. We know that the coronavirus pandemic already had a significant impact on both motor vehicle demand across the U.S. and on vehicle production in Michigan. Recently, the Trump administration issued a new recommendation to shelter-in-place through April. Automakers responded by extending their plant closures already in place. Automakers will also delay the roll out of new vehicles this year. We expect most, if not all, of the nine components of our Michigan Index to show some drag through at least March and April.
The Michigan Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index, industrial electricity sales, auto assemblies, total trade, hotel occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with one of the largest banking center networks in Michigan, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA), a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned by three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping people and businesses be successful. In addition to Michigan and Texas, Comerica Bank locations can be found in Arizona, California, and Florida, with select businesses operating in several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank
