Comerica Bank's California Index Still Climbing

Sep 28, 2017

DALLAS, Sept. 28, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index increased by 0.1 percent in July to reach 121.2. July's reading is 23 points, or 54 percent, above the index cyclical low of 97.8. The index averaged 118.6 points in 2016, two and three-tenths points above the average for all of 2015. June's index reading was 121.0.

The Comerica Bank California Economic Activity Index increased by 0.1 percent in July, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase. Five out of eight index components were positive in July, including nonfarm payrolls, unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing starts, house prices and the Dow Jones Technology Stock Index. The three negative components were industrial electricity consumption, total state trade and hotel occupancy. Job growth in California looks like it is easing this year after a long period of steady gains. Through 2013, 2014 and 2015 job growth averaged nearly 36,000 net new jobs per month. That eased to about 30,000 net new jobs per month in 2016, and then slowed further to 17,000 net new jobs per month through the first eight months of 2017.  This brought the state's unemployment rate below 5 percent for the first time since late 2006.  Tight labor markets and a maturing tech cycle are expected to keep job growth well below the robust rates of 2013-2015 through this year and next. Fortunately, improving international conditions plus a weaker value of the dollar are positives for the state's important trade sector. According to the California Association of Port Authorities, California ports are linked to about 25 percent of the state's economy. For the 12 months ending in July, the value of California exports was up by 9.3 percent, while the value of imports declined by 1.4 percent.

The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight variables, as follows: nonfarm payrolls, exports, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, national defense spending, house prices, and the NASDAQ-100-Technology Sector Index (NDXT). All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2008. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.

Comerica Bank, with locations in the key California markets of San Francisco and the East Bay, San Jose, Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego, Fresno, Sacramento, Santa Cruz/Monterey, and the Inland Empire, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE: CMA). Comerica is a financial services company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and strategically aligned into three major business segments: the Business Bank, the Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships and helping businesses and people be successful.

To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at Archives are available at Follow us on Twitter: @Comerica_Econ.

Comerica logo. (PRNewsFoto/Comerica Bank)

SOURCE Comerica Bank

For further information: Media Contact: Robert Dye, (214) 462-6839, or Data Contact: Daniel Sanabria, (214) 462-6789,